MASS or ECDIS-assisted ship acts on a spoofed fix
The picture is green. The ship is not where it thinks it is. Give-way logic, grounding alarms, and remote-ops all fire on the lie.
AI Risk Atlas Prototype/Demo — Unofficial independent experiment. Not an official xAI product. Scores can be wrong.
Owner · Flag states, class societies, owners, IMO
Statement (NASA form)
Given that the IMO MASS Code is in force for cargo ships, GNSS/AIS spoofing is an operational fact in several seas, and language models are being wired onto ECDIS, remote-ops, and port automation, there is a possibility of an autonomous or remotely operated ship acting on a confident false fix, a ghost AIS contact, or a prompt that reaches steering resulting in collision, grounding, a blocked strait or port, pollution, and casualties — plus a trade shock if the failure clusters.
- Condition
- the IMO MASS Code is in force for cargo ships, GNSS/AIS spoofing is an operational fact in several seas, and language models are being wired onto ECDIS, remote-ops, and port automation
- Departure
- an autonomous or remotely operated ship acting on a confident false fix, a ghost AIS contact, or a prompt that reaches steering
- Impact
- collision, grounding, a blocked strait or port, pollution, and casualties — plus a trade shock if the failure clusters
Experimental share of compiled public capital that names this risk. Not a certified residual.
Maritime risk used to be weather and fatigue. It is now a trust problem at the data layer. GNSS spoofing is present, green, and believed; AIS rebroadcasts the lie; terminals fuse GNSS with inertial sensors in a way that survives an outage and fails on a lying signal. ClassNK warned in June 2026 that Hormuz-class interference makes MASS decision-making unreliable. The MASS Code, in effect 1 July 2026, is a goal-based framework — not a verified defence against a spoofed fix or an LLM on the bridge OT. Rakuten Maritime / ClassNK’s 8 Sep ‘dark cockpit’ paper is explicit: poorly designed almost-autonomous ships can be very dangerous, and fleet-wide software pushes are a concentration risk.
Simple upstream → via → downstream notes. Not a causal graph. Experimental.
Assumptions · The MASS Code is a framework, not a verified GNSS-spoof defence. ClassNK's Hormuz warning is treated as current.
Override is stored on this desk only. It does not make the score official.
Each scenario has its own likelihood and consequence. The risk takes the most severe cell. Residual applies implemented mitigations to every scenario, then re-ranks.
The picture is green. The ship is not where it thinks it is. Give-way logic, grounding alarms, and remote-ops all fire on the lie.
A policy net and a human master disagree, or two nets choose incompatible stand-on/give-way. Collision in a TSS or a fog bank.
Prompt injection or a compromised remote-ops session moves the rudder, the throttle, or the chart.
A container ship grounded in the Red Sea after GPS put it hundreds of miles from its real position. Baltic research vessels have seen GNSS unavailable ~20% of the time; Black Sea spoofing is described as near-daily.
MSC.595(111) took effect 1 July 2026. It requires a description of operating modes. It does not require a ship to refuse a GNSS signal that is present, confident, and false.
ClassNK and Rakuten Maritime: once AI perceives, decides, and acts, the crew may not see the cybersecurity that is supposed to save them. DNV ShipManager and Furuno ECDIS ransomware are already concentration-risk events on the record.
X posts on the desk that evidence this risk. A signal can contribute to more than one risk.
Red Sea grounding on a believed fake GPS fix; Baltic/Black Sea spoofing at operational scale.
Same week as a 10k-agent capability jump: MASS will not get a slower model than the lab just showed.
Eval agents already leave software sandboxes; a ship is a sandbox with a hull.
Residual assumes only items marked in place. Highlighted rows are the remaining work needed to reach a composite of 12.
Attackers almost always spoof GPS alone. Require a second constellation and a non-RF fix (radar, visual, terrestrial) before an autonomous helm change. Class requirement, not a vendor option.
Flag states / class / IMO · expedited 2 months · normal 8 months · −1 L · −1 C · −1 U
Stand-on/give-way and grounding envelopes in a certified box. The agent may propose; it may not disable the interlock.
Flag states and MASS vendors · expedited 6 weeks · normal 6 months · −0 L · −1 C · −1 U
Flag a signal that is present, confident, and inconsistent with inertial, radar, or a second constellation. The current fusion stack treats that as a good fix.
Class societies and ECDIS vendors · expedited 4 weeks · normal 5 months · −1 L · −0 C · −1 U
A physical, on-board halt and helm that works when the shore SOC, the agent, and the uplink do not. One tired remote watchstander is not the last control for a fleet.
Owners, flag, and remote-ops centres · expedited 3 weeks · normal 3 months · −1 L · −1 C · −0 U