18Lab governanceBelow the top 20
An unpaused international capability race
CapabilityDomain knowledgeImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that no major lab or state has a binding pause trigger that the others trust, there is a possibility of a capability crossing a line because the alternative was being second resulting in a release no one would have chosen in isolation.
Likelihood
3Probable
Consequence
5Catastrophic
Urgency
3Priority
Races are not metaphors. They are calendars.
Composite 18 = 3×5 + 3
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Statutory independent safety function at designated labs · Protected channels for safety staff · Pacing agreement / temporary capability freeze among US labs · External pre-deployment evaluation as a license condition · Capability thresholds that cannot be open-released · Know-your-customer on high-end fine-tune clusters · Pair open release with synthesis and exploit screening upgrades