14EducationBelow the top 20
Unequal access to competent tutors
CapabilityDomain knowledgeImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that paid, well-grounded tutors sit behind a subscription; free ones hallucinate, there is a possibility of learning gains concentrating in the households that can pay resulting in an education gap the public system cannot see, because both kids ‘used AI’.
Likelihood
4Likely
Consequence
3Major
Urgency
2Planned
A tutor in every pocket is not the same tutor.
Composite 14 = 4×3 + 2
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Broader ownership of the complementary stack · Transition income tied to measured displacement, not rhetoric · Windfall and compute taxes earmarked for the displaced · Apprenticeship quotas in firms that deploy the models · Automatic stabilisers for exposed graduating cohorts · University curricula rebuilt around the remaining scarce work · A real off-ramp that still functions