18Open weights & leakageBelow the top 20
State fine-tunes of leaked checkpoints
CapabilityDomain knowledgeImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that every major leak is already mirrored in jurisdictions no lab can reach, there is a possibility of a national programme stripping refusals and adding targeting data resulting in a sovereign stack with frontier capability and no safety staff.
Likelihood
3Probable
Consequence
5Catastrophic
Urgency
3Priority
Recall is a story we tell ourselves about files.
Composite 18 = 3×5 + 3
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Capability thresholds that cannot be open-released · Know-your-customer on high-end fine-tune clusters · Pair open release with synthesis and exploit screening upgrades · Treaty limit on fully autonomous targeting · Meaningful human control with a reconstructable why · Adversarial test sets built from civilian lookalikes · Model Hardware Standard with safety limits on physical agents