13Physical & weaponsBelow the top 20
Civilian mis-identification by a drone swarm
CapabilityDomain knowledgeAffordanceImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that swarms compress decide-time below what a staff officer can reconstruct, there is a possibility of a correlated mis-ID across many airframes at once resulting in a civilian massacre that was a class error, not a rogue unit.
Likelihood
2Remote
Consequence
5Catastrophic
Urgency
3Priority
One wrong cue, many airframes.
Composite 13 = 2×5 + 3