15Labor & rentsBelow the top 20
Collapse of entry in the creative industries
CapabilityDomain knowledgeAffordanceImpact domainCap-adjacent
Statement (NASA form)
Given that image, music, and copy models already undercut junior commercial work, there is a possibility of the first paid rungs of those crafts disappearing resulting in a culture whose next generation never got hired to learn it.
Likelihood
4Likely
Consequence
3Major
Urgency
3Priority
The portfolio used to be the door. The model is the portfolio.
Composite 15 = 4×3 + 3
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Apprenticeship quotas in firms that deploy the models · Automatic stabilisers for exposed graduating cohorts · University curricula rebuilt around the remaining scarce work · Broader ownership of the complementary stack · Transition income tied to measured displacement, not rhetoric · Windfall and compute taxes earmarked for the displaced