18BiosecurityBelow the top 20
Codon-shuffle evasion of synthesis screens
CapabilityDomain knowledgeImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that the same protein can be encoded many ways, and screens still key on strings, there is a possibility of an order that is functionally a pathogen and textually a miss resulting in commercial synthesis of a screened-out construct.
Likelihood
3Probable
Consequence
5Catastrophic
Urgency
3Priority
Obfuscation is a compiler trick. The biology does not care.
Composite 18 = 3×5 + 3
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Mandatory, model-aware synthesis screening · Restore independent biosecurity staff at frontier labs · Know-your-customer for high-risk biological queries · Capability thresholds that cannot be open-released · Know-your-customer on high-end fine-tune clusters · Pair open release with synthesis and exploit screening upgrades