18Open weights & leakageBelow the top 20
Amateur bio-toolkits on public mirrors
CapabilityDomain knowledgeImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that protocol models plus shopping lists already circulate as ‘education’, there is a possibility of a packaged, uncensored wet-lab assistant on a torrent resulting in the last remaining friction — knowing what to buy — disappearing.
Likelihood
3Probable
Consequence
5Catastrophic
Urgency
3Priority
The kit is the product. The model is the manual.
Composite 18 = 3×5 + 3
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Mandatory, model-aware synthesis screening · Restore independent biosecurity staff at frontier labs · Know-your-customer for high-risk biological queries · Capability thresholds that cannot be open-released · Know-your-customer on high-end fine-tune clusters · Pair open release with synthesis and exploit screening upgrades