10BiosecurityBelow the top 20
Agricultural pathogen design
CapabilityDomain knowledgeImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that crop and livestock genomes are public, and models can propose edits, there is a possibility of a designed plant or animal pathogen aimed at a food system resulting in a harvest failure or cull that looks like weather until it is not.
Likelihood
2Remote
Consequence
4Critical
Urgency
2Planned
Food systems are softer targets than people and just as strategic.
Composite 10 = 2×4 + 2
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Mandatory, model-aware synthesis screening · Restore independent biosecurity staff at frontier labs · Know-your-customer for high-risk biological queries · Siting only where spare water and firm power already exist · Closed-loop cooling as a permit condition · Training load pays its own interconnection and water