15Open weights & leakageBelow the top 20
Commercial jailbreak marketplaces
CapabilityDomain knowledgeImpact domainBoth
Statement (NASA form)
Given that jailbreaks are already sold, subscribed to, and updated like exploits, there is a possibility of a standing service that keeps a popular model open for paying clients resulting in safety training that is obsolete on the day it ships.
Likelihood
4Likely
Consequence
3Major
Urgency
3Priority
If there is a market, there is a maintenance window for the attacker.
Composite 15 = 4×3 + 3
Applicable mitigations
Controls · Independent monitors that can halt a trace mid-reason · Public long-trace jailbreak suites · Safety training on long, adversarial traces — not short chats · Capability thresholds that cannot be open-released · Know-your-customer on high-end fine-tune clusters · Pair open release with synthesis and exploit screening upgrades